The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be resurrecting after several years of lying is state, mauled by the electorate almost everywhere. Even in Karnataka, where the Party appeared to have a stronghold, political intransigence and infighting appear to have surfaced, threatening the extinction of the Party. A few arrests over the Mining scandal in the State have not anything good.
But public memory is always short, especially in the case of political underdogs. Indian voters almost always punish incumbent governments and forgive the main opposition. There are therefore no prizes for guesses. With so much pressure being brought against it from all corners, both Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and his Congress Government are in trouble. Some observers say that the Congress would come down by its own weight, although shifting the mantle of power to Rahul Gandhi may salvage the Government.
The BJP camp has cause to rejoice with the ruling party walloped repeatedly over the past few months. Stuttering economic growth, unrelenting inflation and corruption scandals have angered the average voter, which could spell disaster in the 2014 polls.
The contention that the next election is three years away and that it is too early to predict the doomsday of Congress is also true. For, the current state of affairs, with the Anna Hazare Movement against corruption gathering all-round support may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the ruling party.
The anti-corruption crusader may in effect, force the government to take tough action against the erring officials, thereby cleansing the administrative machinery. This alone can subdue public anger.
But the BJP sees glimmers of electoral victory, two years after an unexpectedly bad thumping at the general election.
Though it was slow to grasp the intensity of public support for Hazare, Party leaders point out that their own yearlong protests and demands in parliament for inquiries into official scams have brought resignations and arrests.
Their strategy is paying off, although rather slowly.
The BJP will not win in Uttar Pradesh, but it hopes to knock Congress into fourth place. That would hurt Mr Gandhi, who fronts his party’s state election campaign. A good showing, BJP strategists say, would do much to lure allies in India’s south and east, where the BJP itself has no chance. Together with other state elections, notably in BJP-run Gujarat, 2012 has the makings of a “mini-general election year”, says one party man.
Yet, as a strategy, pinning success on the back of Congress’s unpopularity has flaws. The BJP has yet to tackle its own shortcomings. The most obvious is its baffling cast of leaders, who make the party a multi-headed pantomime horse.
For the BJP, a shift from identity politics and the party’s association with high- and medium-caste Hindus makes sense for tapping voters, of whatever religion, who worry most about good governance. The model is the BJP’s part in a successful ruling alliance in Bihar, which even manages to draw Muslim votes.
