Jo Moir
Wellington, May 18, 2020
Labour would be comfortably able to govern alone based on a Newshub Reid-Research poll released tonight.
The popularity of Jacinda Ardern and her Party has skyrocketed in the aftermath of the nationwide Covid-19 lockdown.
The poll has Labour on 56.5 percentage points – up 14 – while National slumps down 12.7 percentage points to 30.6.
The big losers
The Greens sneak in just above the 5% threshold while New Zealand First falls to 2.7%.
On those numbers, Labour would hold 72 seats in Parliament – 11 more than needed to govern – and ACT and New Zealand First would be gone.
It would mean at least 16 current National Party MPs would lose their seats.
Ardern told Newshub, “it speaks to the work we have jointly done. I just happen to have had the humble and privileged opportunity to be leading at this time.”
Bridges reacts
In a statement, National’s Leader Simon Bridges said the results were not surprising.
“Governments the world over have seen a boost following Covid-19. We have seen wall to wall coverage of the government during the crisis. But that was not an election campaign, which will be about our economic future. National has the team and the track record for jobs and growth and that will put us in a much stronger position as we head towards the election,” he said.
Ardern’s own popularity has also soared, up 20.8 points to 59.5, and Bridges’ preferred Prime Minister rating drops down to 4.5.
The poll was conducted between the May 8 and May 16, 2020 and has a margin of error of 3.1%.
The election is set down for September 19, 2020 and on the two polls before tonight’s poll, National was in the lead.
In February, Colmar Brunton had National on 46 points, which combined with ACT would have allowed it to govern. The last Newshub Reid-Research poll, also in February, had National on 43.3, just ahead of Labour on 42.5.
Massive swing
“I would have expected a big swing to the government and harm to the opposition but this is absolutely massive,” right-wing political commentator Matthew Hooton told Checkpoint.
“It suggests that National is on its way to lose about 12 seats; that is 12 MPs who will lose their jobs. The gap between National and Labour is 26 points… a 25% gap is absolutely enormous and there is no way back for National on this unless it makes some radical changes,” he said.
“Clearly the leadership has failed. Simon Bridges is down to 4.5%. The public simply does not like him, that is not fair, the public simply did not like Andrew Little. He is a perfectly pleasant person- Andrew Little but the public did not like him, and so Labour had no choice in the end but to get rid of him, and National is now at that point,” he said.
Hooton said, that if National “acts rationally” it would wait to see how the upcoming TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll looked. He thought it will be revealed on Thursday (May 21, 2020).
If it showed similar numbers to the Newshub-Reid Research poll, Hooton said that the pressure would be on Bridges to quit the leadership at next Tuesday’s National Party caucus.
Jo Moir is a Political Reporter at Radio New Zealand. The above Report and Picture have been published under a Special Arrangement with www.rnz.co.nz
