Latest Poll puts Labour one seat short of governance

But TVNZ Colmar Burton places the Party still in the lead

Auckland, September 28, 2020

Jacinda Ardern (Labour) and Judith Collins (National) at TV One Debate on September 23, 2020 (Screenshot)

The latest Colmar Brunton Poll of TVNZ has Labour on 47%, National on 33%, with Labour unable to govern alone.

The Green Party is on 7%, ACT on 8% and NZ First is on 1%.

The TVNZ Poll came one night after Newshub’s latest Reid Research Poll, which had Labour at 50.1%, National on 29.6%, the Greens at 6.5% and ACT on 6.3%.

Jacinda Ardern is on 54% for preferred Prime Minister – no change from previous poll.

Judith Collins is on 23%, which is up five points.

David Seymour is showing on 2% and Winston Peters on 1%.

University of Auckland politics Lecturer Lara Greaves said that the big question is, “Will Labour hold on enough to govern alone?”

While the Party is trending down, it is down from record highs.

Too late for National

“I think it is ultimately too little too late [for National]. I think that Ms Collins has a lot to turn around in a short time period. I think that she knew on becoming leader that that would become a challenge.

I think that generally the downward trend from Labour is not due to their incompetency or National’s competency, it is more a function of the fact that New Zealand has been through this collective trauma of Covid-19 and associated crisis. We know from studies after studies that when there is a crisis in a country, people tend to cling to the incumbent government,” he said.

As for New Zealand First, Ms Greaves said: “I think that at this point, we probably have to say that there is only a very, very slim chance of them coming back … it is looking rather unlikely. Greens may be out of the danger zone. They often poll slightly better than their election result,” she said.

Four-Party Parliament

According to Ms Greaves, the next Parliament would comprise would four political parties.

“That is going to create an incredibly strange dynamic where Labour has this flank Party of the Greens on the left and National having this flanking Party on the right of ACT. We are not going to have any centre parties that have that sort of coalition or blackmail potential. What that is going to do is put a lot of power in ACT or the Green party depending on who is governing,” she said.

The Election will be held on Saturday, October 17, 2020.

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