Latest Opinion Poll brings the much-needed cheer
Venkat Raman
Auckland, June 26, 2020
National Party Leader Todd Muller has said that New Zealand First will not be part of a National government if elected in the General Election 2020.
Speaking to Morning Report of Radio New Zealand today, he reflected the mood of his Caucus.
Good news for National
His stance could have been encouraged by the 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll which lifted his Party by nine percentage points since he took office on May 22, 2020.
The Poll, announced last night took National to 38%, while brining down Labour to 50%.
It was a significant loss for Labour, a clear indication of public ire over the management of Covid-19 pandemic, with an increasing feeling of being let down over testing.
Although the Poll still gave Labour the chance to form the next government on its own with 62 seats in Parliament, the stride taken by National is considerable.
The Poll wiped out New Zealand First, which placed the Party at 2%, far below the threshold of 5% need to make it to Parliament. The Green Party was at 6% and Act at 3%.
Expediency the Master
But expediency is often the master of circumstances, and if New Zealand First matters and if National needs that Party, Mr Muller may not let go of the opportunity.
But how that combination will shape up would depend on the outcome and it is still early days.
“My position has always been that our Caucus said in February 2020 that we cannot see a way that we would work with them. That remains our position. But I have said all along, my final pronunciation on all of this will be before the campaign starts,” he told Morning Report.
Mr Muller said that he would discuss the issue of working with ACT Party post-election.
Traditional Strategy
Politicians and political observers know better than to write-off New Zealand First and its Leader Winston Peters because both have proved that they can bounce back.
Mr Peters has ‘Gray Power,’ the support of seniors and considerable clout in Northland. He has consistently proved opinion polls wrong.
However, University of Auckland Politics Professor Jennifer Curtin believes that New Zealand is following its traditional strategy, which is clearly not working.
“I think it is partly because this has been a different kind of coalition for New Zealand First than what they’ve experienced before.
“What I think they have done wrong here is that they have not made the most of the Provincial Growth Fund. They have not spent all the money that they have been allocated and Labour gave New Zealand First an opportunity to be the champion of the regions and to shore up their vote through a positive campaign and they have gone back to this traditional negative way of working. And actually, it looks like it is not going to work for them,” she said.
National’s future bright
Public Press Relations Consultant and former National government Press Secretary Ben Thomas told Morning Report that National’s long-term future is best – looks best – if New Zealand First is out of Parliament.
“On the other hand, they might be tempted. Muller has a background and a history with Winston Peters going back to the 1990s in the Beehive. I think that they will be tempted to at least keep that option open. New Zealand First has a lot of headwinds coming into this election. The first one is their very low polling rate now, the second one is immigration, their usual go-to policy is just off the table right now because no-one is coming into the country. And the third thing is that SFO (Serious Fraud Office) inquiry,” he said.
Growth Fund advantage
Mr Thomas said that the benefits for New Zealand First is that they may not have made the most of the Provincial Growth Fund.
“(Regional Economic Development Minister) Shane Jones has $3 billion to spend in the lead-up to the election on shovel-ready projects. So, let us not count them out yet, but things are not looking good,” he said.
Mr Thomas said that the latest Poll results were what the base voters of National Party needed.
“This election would be different because of Covid-19, and that meant health would be front and centre – and so would Clark. That plays into National’s strategy which is knowing that it is unlikely they can match Leader versus Leader … they are going for the strategy of saying ‘We have got a better team, look behind the leader. Muller’s approach is a tack back towards the Centre with less hard-line rhetoric,” he said.
Editor’s Note: Quotes in the above Report were taken from Morning Report, under a Special Arrangement with www.rnz.co.nz
