Analysis by Peter Wilson
Wellington, September 19, 2020
The recession draws strong criticism from opposition parties, Labour dumps its fees-free policy, Jami-Lee Ross decides to try to slip into Parliament as a list MP, National delivers its health policy and why a former party leader thinks it’s “the most boring election ever”.
Everyone knew it was coming but opposition parties reacted with shock and horror when the latest economic figures showed New Zealand was officially in recession.
The GDP data released on Thursday, September 17, 2020, showed two consecutive quarters of negative growth with a 12.2% fall in the three months to June, better than forecast but still the worst on record.
Judith Collins
National Party Leader Judith Collins blamed the government for the extent of the recession and compared it with a 7% fall in Australia’s GDP.
“It is now official that we are in the deepest recession in living memory and it is proof that New Zealand needs a National-led government now that has a clear plan. There was a better way and the government should have taken it,” she said.
Winston Peters
New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters also made the Australian comparison, saying that New Zealand’s situation was much worse.
“Here we are in what they say is a recession,” It is more than that. We are going to (need to) take a lot of smart and clever decisions to get out of this mess,” he said.
David Seymour
ACT’s David Seymour said it was the worst of all worlds.
“Economy falling off a cliff and a mountain of debt that’s being used to palliate the economic situation but clearly failed,” he said.
Grant Robertson
Finance Minister Grant Robertson said that there was no way any political party could claim that the recession could have been avoided.
“If you compare unemployment, our peak is going to be significantly lower than Australia’s and our rebound will be faster,” he said.
Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern said that she was backing New Zealand’s ability to rebound and had no problem with comparisons to Australia.
“In a number of ways, we are faring very, very well and that is in spite of the fact that actually international tourism is worth twice as much to us as it is to Australia,” she said and questioned opposition definitions of success, saying the government’s actions had saved lives.
Fees-Free Policy dumped
During the week, Labour quietly dumped its fees-free tertiary education policy, saying that it would instead prioritise free apprenticeships and targeted areas of vocational training.
Education Minister Chris Hipkins made the announcement that fees-free would not extend beyond the first year of study, wrapping up the news in a $17 billion package revealed in Porirua.
Fees-free was a flagship Labour policy going into the 2017 election but the uptake was far less than the government had expected and National ridiculed it.
Mr Hipkins said it was “the sort of thing you do when the economy is good” and times had changed.
“We will be targeting our additional tertiary education spending in areas that are critical for the country’s economic recovery in the post-Covid environment,” he said.
Key Education policies
Key policies in the package include replacing the decile system with an Equality Index and closing the teacher pay gap.
Stuff thought that scrapping fees-free could draw votes away from Labour and help the Greens get back into Parliament.
“Although no one under 18 can vote, first-year students can and plenty of people’s parents can,” Luke Malpass wrote. “There would have been more than a few budgets within families that were looking forward to more than the first year of university – or other study – being paid for by the government.”
Jami-Lee Ross quits Botany
Jami-Lee Ross announced he was quitting as a candidate in the Botany electorate so that he could lead Advance NZ’s nationwide campaign.
The former National MP is pinning his hopes on coat-tailing it into Parliament on the back of Māori roll voters in Te Tai Tokerau, where Co-Leader Billy Te Kahika is standing.
Mr Ross confirmed to RNZ that he was second on the Party List.
If Te Kahika wins the seat, Advance NZ will be exempt from the 5% Party vote threshold and Mr Ross thinks he could slip into Parliament.
He denied that he pulled out of Botany to avoid a thrashing.
It is a true, blue seat and Christopher Luxon is standing for National.
The reaction of voters spoken to by RNZ was basically good riddance.
Billy Te Kahika
Te Kahika, whose NZ Public Party has merged with Advance NZ, is a controversial figure in the campaign with his appeal based on conspiracy theories and the message that he is not worried about Covid-19. His explanation for that is: “Because the leading health organisations on the planet are saying that Covid-19 is a winter flu equivalent virus.”
That is not correct and Health Minister Hipkins has taken serious issue with it.
“The virus is very, very deadly and there is no vaccine,” he said.
RNZ’s Katie Scotcher was in Whangarei with Te Kahika.
“His followers seem entranced by the charismatic leader’s every word,” she reported.
Her in-depth article reveals why he is getting traction in the Māori electorate.
Worry for National
ACT leader David Seymour was a vigorous campaigner this week. He is smiling a lot, and he has reason to do so – he thinks his years as ACT’s sole MP are nearly over.
In July, a 1News Colmar Brunton poll put ACT on 5%, its best rating in 17 years, and in the same month, a Newshub Reid Research poll gave it 3.3%.
Stuff reported that it had obtained a UMR poll which showed ACT on a whopping 6.2%.
On those poll ratings, Mr Seymour is looking at six or seven MPs joining him.
That should worry National. It needs ACT but cannot afford to bleed too many votes.
ACT’s surge must be coming from National or NZ First, it is very unlikely to be attracting voters from Labour or the Greens and Seymour’s policy announcement will have reinforced that.
Mr Seymour said that his Party would repeal the Zero Carbon Act and the Emissions Trading Scheme and end the ban on new oil and gas permits.
He argues that New Zealand has more mineral resources than Australia on a per capita basis.
“We have just chosen not to use them,” he said.
Online TV campaigns
The first online and TV campaign ads began to appear, with Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins speaking directly to camera saying the sort of things they would be expected to say.
The Herald asked marketing expert and Quantum Jump chief executive Ben Goodale what he thought of them and the response was “incredibly dull and safe.”
In his opinion, they would be “just watched and forgotten.”
Former ACT leader and long-time Labour Cabinet Minister Richard Prebble is finding the whole thing a bore. Writing in the New Zealand Herald, he said that the election should be the most exciting ever. ”The stakes could not be higher – how to respond to the pandemic, how to restore the economy,” he said.
“Instead it is the most boring election ever. It is more like a coronation. There is no choice. Four of the parliamentary parties are Labour-like. They have the same approach to Covid-19. They are all advocating a government-led recovery funded by borrowing,” he said.
The ACT alternative
Mr Prebble thought that the sole reason ACT had gone “from near zero to being the largest third party” was because it was offering an alternative to borrow and hope.
National has unveiled its health policy early in the campaign with health spokesman Shane Reti making the announcement.
He said that every single health target had worsened under Labour.
“Our health policy will deliver better care sooner, and closer to home,” Mr Prebble said.
That sounded familiar but Dr Reti had details and promised an extra $800 million over four years.
Pharmac would get an extra $55 million a year, there would be a dedicated cancer drug fund worth $50 million a year and a social worker-type navigator would be placed in every general practice.
If you are not sure what the parties stand for, read RNZ’s guide to party policy for general election.
Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament’s Press Gallery, 22 years as NZPA’s Political Editor and seven as Parliamentary Bureau Chief for NZ Newswire. The Above Analysis has been published under a Special Agreement with www.rnz.co.nz
