Labour-Green Coalition government extremely likely

Venkat Raman

Venkat Raman

Auckland, October 15, 2020

Latest TV One Colmar-Brunton Poll gives the combo 70 seats

                               Position of Parties (TV One Colmar-Burton Poll October 15, 2020)

If the latest and last Opinion Poll is any indication, Labour Party will form a government in coalition with the Greens when counting ends on Saturday, October 17, 2020.

Poll Results

The Colmar-Brunton Poll, conducted for TV One News, released at 6 pm, found Labour in a commanding position at 46%, although down by 1%. The Green Party has moved up (by 2%) to 8%, to secure 11 seats in the next Parliament.

National Party, the main Opposition, dropped by 1% to 31%, securing 40 seats. Its main ally, ACT Party, remained steady at 8%, equating to 10 seats.

New Zealand First edged up 1% to reach 3%, while New Conservative moved up by 1% to reach 2%.

The Opportunities Party dropped to 1% (down 1%), Maori Party is at 1% and Advance New Zealand remains at 1%.

The Poll was conducted between October 10 and 14, 2020. The Survey had 1005 eligible voters polled by landline (403) or mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For Party Support, percentages were rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats New Zealand population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.


Number of Seats in Parliament (TV One Colmar-Burton Poll October 15, 2020)

Rise of Green Party

The Poll saw the biggest rise of the Green Party since 2017. Earlier this year, the Party was below the threshold of 5%. With tonight’s results, the Greens will be strong contenders to be Labour Party’s Coalition Partner in the next government.

The Green Party has risen to its highest level since just before the last election. It comes after the party had earlier this year fallen below the 5% threshold line needed to get into Parliament. The result would mean the Greens would bring in 11 MPs into Parliament.

The Party’s Co-Leader Marama Davidson said that the Poll was encouraging.

It could bring in new MPs such as activist Teanau Tuiono, Dr Elizabeth Kerekere, Auckland Action Against Poverty’s Ricardo Menéndez March and Greenpeace Campaigner Steve Abel.

“It speaks to people understanding our plans and our vision. The stronger our party vote, is the bigger the chance of getting across a version of the six priority plans that we have put up,” she said.


Preferred Prime Minister (TV One Colmar-Burton Poll October 15, 2020)

Preferred Prime Minister

Ms Arden is the most preferred Prime Minister, with her rating rising to 55% (an increase of 5%), while Ms Collins fell to 20% (down by 3%) since the past week.

TV One News said that Labour and National dipped slightly in the Poll, meaning that Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party must rely on the Greens to form a government.

“Labour still has a strong lead of 15% over National. More than 1.5 million people have already cast their ballot but the Parties are scrambling to pick up votes before the booths close on Saturday night,” the TV Channel said.

The results were released just an hour before the final TVNZ Leaders’ Debate between Ms Ardern and Ms Collins tonight (at 7 pm) on TV One.

Party Leaders’ comments

Ms Ardern said that she was pleased with the steady support that her Party was received.

Commenting on the rise of the Green Party, she said that she “would not read too much into those numbers of the minor Parties.”

Ms Collins dismissed the Poll saying that the only Poll that matters is the one on election night.

“But people have been saying to me, ‘I want to help National, which way should I vote?’ Easy, just two ticks blue. I bank on undecided voters giving their votes to National. We just keep going and we keep being positive and we have an absolute chance,” she said.

NZ First leader Winston Peters said that there was “a surge on” with the Party’s result increasing.

“There is a whole lot of undecided voters. People need insurance so that the stability that we have had in the last three years, we will get for the next three years,” he said.

ACT Leader David Seymour said that his Party was the best Party for holding them all accountable.

“We have been the most principled opposition for the last three years,” he said.

Details of the previous TV One News Colmar-Brunton Poll can be read here.

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